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After 2019, the year of Central Banks, comes 2020, the year of … Profits? Investors would certainly dream of it, but nothing is for certain: while fundamentals remain positive for equities and negative for rates in the short term, a major shift could arise. US corporate margins could erode; with that, the possibility of an American recession over the coming 12 to 18 months can’t be excluded; uncertainty should be plenty. In this context, valuations are too expensive and a 10 to 15% stock market correction (on average, depending on the geographic area) sometimes during the year would be welcome to yield-seeking investors.

What does a quantitative rational model tell us about the 2020 macroeconomic outlook?

Discover the unique analysis of Seeyond's experts.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • 2019: a year in review
  • 2020 outlook
  • Medium term signals on the probability of a US recession
  • Equity markets could suffer in 2020 for being too complacent in 2019
  • The global economic and financial situation can be summarized in 6 points

Written on January 10th, 2020.

This article has been provided for information purposes only to professional clients as defined in the MiFID Directive. It must not be used for retail investors. The provision of this material or reference to specific sectors or markets in this article does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any investment carefully before investing. Views expressed in this article as of the date indicated are subject to change and there can be no assurance that developments will transpire as may be forecasted in this article.


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