- The sustainability of the macro-financial cycle that started in 2009 is hotly debated, but its extension in 2020 is more and more likely. Beyond uncertainties about world trade, a new industrial mini-cycle is in the making.
- While cyclically-adjusted P/Es have gained in popularity for years, investors’ behavior remains deeply cyclical. A new mini-cycle and very low interest rates should support equity valuations in 2020.
- The MSCI World has finally broken above its January 2018 high, suggesting that the long consolidation phase of 2018/19 has come to an end. Euphoria emerges from time to time, but “greed” indicators have recently cooled off.
- Several replacement cycles should contribute to industrial stabilization in 2020. This is the case in China with the generation of 5G smartphones, and with the renewal of the car fleet sold during the big stimulus of 2009/2010.