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Expansion Phase Continues: Investment Outlook July 2021

Highlights

  • Economic expansion is still in the early innings with room to run
  • Loomis Sayles’ proprietary Corporate Health Index currently indicates strong health relative to history
  • Credit: Tight spreads reflect a strong operating environment and fundamental outlook
  • The Fed is expected to begin tapering asset purchases in early 2022 and deliver the first rate hike of this cycle during the first half of 2023
  • US dollar should trend lower as the global reopening accelerates
  • Equities: Underlying economic strength could drive earnings and equity markets higher even if long interest rates trend up
  • Risks: It would probably take an external shock or policy error to derail the expansion. Large-scale cyber hacks on national infrastructure is seen as a tail risk, but they have the potential to derail the broad economic expansion

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