Highlights

  • The active circulation of the virus and its variants continue to weigh on the ability of economies to return to pre-crisis trends.
  • 2021 should, nevertheless, be a year of strong recovery, supported by vaccination campaigns, household consumtion (which benefits from substantial savings and a positive wealth effect) and business investment (attractive financial conditions in a low interest rate environment combined with better visibility on demand).
  • Financial assets should perform well apart from the sovereign rate market.
  • On the economic front, inflationary risk is to be watched along with the pace and extent of the economic recovery.
Written in January 2021.

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