Fixed income

Euro high yield: how to explain spreads resilience against geopolitical shocks?

September 16, 2025 - 3 min

Axel Botte
Head of market strategy

Monetary policies, a support for the high yield market

The high-yield market has been trading at historically low spread levels since the beginning of 2024.

The end of the monetary cycle has been a relief for companies whose leverage ratios (net debt to EBITDA) typically hover between 3 to 6 times. Successive monetary easing measures have indeed brought the European Central Bank's deposit rate down from 4% to 2%. These rate cuts have likely mitigated the impact of the tariff chaos orchestrated by Donald Trump and facilitated a resurgence of growth in the Eurozone. Despite a sharp drawdown surrounding the announcements in April, BB spreads have fallen below the 200 basis points threshold.

It is possible that the monetary support measures implemented in the wake of the COVID crisis have insulated borrowers from subsequent tightening by deferring refinancing deadlines. This has contributed to a form of attrition in the primary market, with the scarcity of paper driving spreads tighter.

The primary market has seen renewed activity at the end of the first half of 2025. Valuations will need to adjust to this new environment, although the persistently accommodative stance of the ECB provides a degree of visibility into 2026. A relative tension is already observable in the spreads of lower-rated issuers, yet our top-down estimate of the default rate remains below 4% over the next 12 months.

Corinne Gaborieau
Head of corporate sustainability & credit research

High Yield issuers: supportive fundamentals

The second quarter earnings season is coming to an end, revealing a resilience in fundamentals. Despite sometimes mixed operational performances, European companies continue to maintain a strong liquidity position and satisfactory levels of debt. Credit rating downgrades have remained specific to a few issuers in sectors with negative outlooks.

Since the beginning of the year, many groups have continued to extend their debt maturity profiles, reflecting the robustness of their financial profiles. Refinancing conditions have remained favourable. The number of debt restructurings below par has been limited to a few issuers that have been well-known for many years. The default rate in the High Yield market is expected to remain very low in 2026, still below historical levels.

However, the outlook for 2025 is cautious. The announcement of the impending implementation of 15% U.S. tariffs on European products, combined with geopolitical uncertainties and a slowdown in demand from China, has led to downward revisions of previous 2025 guidance, particularly impacting the European automotive and chemical sectors.

Within the High Yield investment landscape, there are subordinated issuances from telecommunications groups, utility services, and regional companies primarily active in Europe. The direct impact of the new U.S. tariffs on the operational results of these issuers is expected to be more limited, providing some visibility in this uncertain environment.

Erwan Guilloux
High yield portfolio manager

Technical factors still highly favourable

The recent dynamics of the credit market are largely driven by the monetary cycle. The decrease in ECB deposit rate from 4% to 2% led to a significant decline in money market yields, driving investors to seek alternatives that still offer an attractive carry level. In this context, European High Yield fully benefits from the "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) rationale.

Moreover, strong technical factors are contributing to the resilience of spreads. Inflows into the asset class have indeed been massive, mechanically supporting valuations. This support has been further reinforced by several years of low net issuance volumes: even though the primary market has become more active in 2025, supply remains insufficient to meet abundant demand.

The structure of the market is also an edge. European High Yield is indeed dominated by BB-rated issuers, which historically have low default rates. Additionally, a relatively low duration limits sensitivity to interest rate movements, providing the market with added stability.

Finally, recent experience has shown that geopolitical shocks, while they may trigger periods of risk aversion, often result in temporary corrections. The example of trade tensions, initiated by Donald Trump, illustrates the market's ability to absorb such shocks.

Thus, the current equilibrium provides a strong foundation to explain why spreads remain particularly resilient, even in a context of exogenous shocks.

This material has been provided for information purposes only to investment service providers or other Professional Clients, Qualified or Institutional Investors and, when required by local regulation, only at their written request. This material must not be used with Retail Investors.

In the E.U.: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International or one of its BRANCH offices listed below. Natixis Investment Managers International is a portfolio management company authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (French Financial Markets Authority - AMF) under no. GP 90-009, and a simplified joint-stock company (société par actions simplifiée - SAS) registered in the Paris Trade and Companies Register under no. 329 450 738, Registered office: 43 avenue Pierre Mendès France, 75013 Paris. Germany: Natixis Investment Managers International, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland (Registration number: HRB 129507). Registered office: Senckenberganlage 21, 60325 Frankfurt am Main. Italy: Natixis Investment Managers International Succursale Italiana (Registration number: MI-2637562). Registered office: Via Adalberto Catena, 4, 20121 Milan, Italy. Netherlands: Natixis Investment Managers International, Dutch BRANCH (Registration number: 000050438298), Registered office: Stadsplateau 7, 3521AZ Utrecht, the Netherlands. Spain: Natixis Investment Managers International S.A., Sucursal en España (Registration number: NIF W0232616C), Registered office: Serrano n°90, 6th Floor, 28006 Madrid, Spain. Luxembourg: Natixis Investment Managers International, Luxembourg BRANCH (Registration number: B283713), Registered office: 2, rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Belgium: Natixis Investment Managers International, Belgian BRANCH (Registration number: 1006.931.462), Gare Maritime, Rue Picard 7, Bte 100, 1000 Bruxelles, Belgium.

In Switzerland: Provided for information purposes only by Natixis Investment Managers, Switzerland Sàrl (Registration number: CHE-114.271.882), Rue du Vieux Collège 10, 1204 Geneva, Switzerland or its representative office in Zurich, Schweizergasse 6, 8001 Zürich.

In the British Isles: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers UK Limited which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA firm reference no. 190258) - registered office: Natixis Investment Managers UK Limited, Level 4, Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London, EC4R 2YA. When permitted, the distribution of this material is intended to be made to persons as described as follows: in the United Kingdom: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at investment professionals and professional investors only; in Ireland: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at professional investors only; in Guernsey: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at only financial services providers which hold a license from the Guernsey Financial Services Commission; in Jersey: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at professional investors only; in the Isle of Man: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at only financial services providers which hold a license from the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority or insurers authorised under section 8 of the Insurance Act 2008.

In the DIFC: Provided in and from the DIFC financial district by Natixis Investment Managers Middle East (DIFC BRANCH) which is regulated by the DFSA. Related financial products or services are only available to persons who have sufficient financial experience and understanding to participate in financial markets within the DIFC, and qualify as Professional Clients or Market Counterparties as defined by the DFSA. No other Person should act upon this material. Registered office: Unit L10-02, Level 10 ,ICD Brookfield Place, DIFC, PO Box 506752, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

In Japan: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Japan Co., Ltd. Registration No.: Director-General of the Kanto Local Financial Bureau (kinsho) No.425. Content of Business: The Company conducts investment management business, investment advisory and agency business and Type II Financial Instruments Business as a Financial Instruments Business Operator.

In Taiwan: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Securities Investment Consulting (Taipei) Co., Ltd., a Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission of the R.O.C. Registered address: 34F., No. 68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao East Road, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 11065, Taiwan (R.O.C.), license number 2020 FSC SICE No. 025, Tel. +886 2 8789 2788.

In Singapore: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Singapore Limited (NIM Singapore) having office at 5 Shenton Way, #22-05/06, UIC Building, Singapore 068808 (Company Registration No. 199801044D) to distributors and qualified investors for information purpose only. NIM Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities and is an exempt financial adviser. Mirova Division (Business Name Registration No.: 53431077W) and Ostrum Division (Business Name Registration No.: 53463468X) are part of NIM Singapore and are not separate legal entities. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Hong Kong Limited to professional investors for information purpose only.

In Australia: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Australia Pty Limited (ABN 60 088 786 289) (AFSL No. 246830) and is intended for the general information of financial advisers and wholesale clients only.

In New Zealand: This document is intended for the general information of New Zealand wholesale investors only and does not constitute financial advice. This is not a regulated offer for the purposes of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMCA) and is only available to New Zealand investors who have certified that they meet the requirements in the FMCA for wholesale investors. Natixis Investment Managers Australia Pty Limited is not a registered financial service provider in New Zealand.

In Korea: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Korea Limited (Registered with Financial Services Commission for General Private Collective Investment Business) to distributors and qualified investors for information purpose only.

In Colombia: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International Oficina de Representación (Colombia) to professional clients for informational purposes only as permitted under Decree 2555 of 2010. Any products, services or investments referred to herein are rendered exclusively outside of Colombia. This material does not constitute a public offering in Colombia and is addressed to less than 100 specifically identified investors.

In Latin America: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International.

In Chile: Esta oferta privada se inicia el día de la fecha de la presente comunicación. La presente oferta se acoge a la Norma de Carácter General N° 336 de la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros de Chile. La presente oferta versa sobre valores no inscritos en el Registro de Valores o en el Registro de Valores Extranjeros que lleva la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, por lo que los valores sobre los cuales ésta versa, no están sujetos a su fiscalización. Que por tratarse de valores no inscritos, no existe la obligación por parte del emisor de entregar en Chile información pública respecto de estos valores. Estos valores no podrán ser objeto de oferta pública mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente.

In Mexico: Provided by Natixis IM Mexico, S. de R.L. de C.V., which is not a regulated financial entity, securities intermediary, or an investment manager in terms of the Mexican Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores) and is not registered with the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) or any other Mexican authority. Any products, services or investments referred to herein that require authorization or license are rendered exclusively outside of Mexico. While shares of certain ETFs may be listed in the Sistema Internacional de Cotizaciones (SIC), such listing does not represent a public offering of securities in Mexico, and therefore the accuracy of this information has not been confirmed by the CNBV. Natixis Investment Managers is an entity organized under the laws of France and is not authorized by or registered with the CNBV or any other Mexican authority. Any reference contained herein to “Investment Managers” is made to Natixis Investment Managers and/or any of its investment management subsidiaries, which are also not authorized by or registered with the CNBV or any other Mexican authority.

In Uruguay: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Uruguay S.A. Office: San Lucar 1491, Montevideo, Uruguay, CP 11500. The sale or offer of any units of a fund qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627.

In Brazil: Provided to a specific identified investment professional for information purposes only by Natixis Investment Managers International. This communication cannot be distributed other than to the identified addressee. Further, this communication should not be construed as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. Natixis Investment Managers International is a portfolio management company authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (French Financial Markets Authority - AMF) under no. GP 90-009, and a simplified joint-stock company (société par actions simplifiée - SAS) registered in the Paris Trade and Companies Register under no. 329 450 738. Registered office: 43 avenue Pierre Mendès France, 75013 Paris.

The above referenced entities are business development units of Natixis Investment Managers, the holding company of a diverse line-up of specialised investment management and distribution entities worldwide. The investment management subsidiaries of Natixis Investment Managers conduct any regulated activities only in and from the jurisdictions in which they are licensed or authorized. Their services and the products they manage are not available to all investors in all jurisdictions.

Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information.

The provision of this material and/or reference to specific securities, sectors, or markets within this material does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation or an offer to buy or to sell any security, or an offer of any regulated financial activity. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any investment carefully before investing. The analyses, opinions, and certain of the investment themes and processes referenced herein represent the views of the individual(s) as of the date indicated. These, as well as the portfolio holdings and characteristics shown, are subject to change and cannot be construed as having any contractual value. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as may be forecasted in this material. The analyses and opinions expressed by external third parties are independent and does not necessarily reflect those of Natixis Investment Managers. Any past performance information presented is not indicative of future performance.

This material may not be distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part.

All amounts shown are expressed in USD unless otherwise indicated.

DR-73529