Market Outlook 2021
Covid-19 will continue to pose near-term public health challenges, but vaccine news and longer-term economic indicators suggest enthusiasm and opportunity.
- The legislative agenda of the incoming Biden administration is likely to incur congressional gridlock under a Democratic House and Republican Senate. As a result, major developments or changes in federal policy remain unlikely. This could change as a result of the January 2021 Senate runoff races in Georgia, although early polling suggests that the GOP will maintain its majority. Despite partisan tensions, the Biden administration will be able to make some changes to federal financial regulations, energy policy, and immigration policy via executive orders.
- Increasing case counts in the US and Europe are cause for concern, but Covid-19 fatality rates have remained under control as a result of increased knowledge of the virus and improvements in treatment. The size and scope of the March/April 2020 stimulus efforts continues to be felt. A smaller, near-term fiscal aid package in the US remains possible before the end of the year.
- Positive news on vaccine development has helped to buoy markets, but the road back to normal in terms of public health and economic sentiment will not be a straight line. Production, distribution, and dose prioritization challenges will affect the rollout of approved vaccines. The recovery will have fits and starts, but it is going in the right direction, and the market outlook for 2021 remains positive.
- Indicators of strengthening business activity in 2021 include post-pandemic inventory restocking, a strong housing market, and continually improving consumer confidence.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. The analyses and opinions referenced herein represent the subjective views of the speakers as referenced as of November 18, 2020 and are subject to change.