"Macroeconomic momentum has taken a severe downturn since the summer of 2018, as shown by the sharp and sudden slump in world trade since the start of the fall. Trade contracted slightly in January 2019 from a previous yoy growth figure of 4% at the time. This very drastic downtrend is primarily attributable to Asia, as the region’s imports and exports have taken a clear plunge over the past several months. Meanwhile, other regions are seeing less dramatic trends and have not necessarily experienced this same deterioration in profile. The speed of this trend suggests that it is mainly due to US trade policy moves and the country’s conflict with China."

Discover Ostrum AM experts economic and market analysis for the 2nd quarter 2019.

Ostrum AM experts’ views in "Horizons":

  • Macro: euro area on the front lines in the world trade shock
  • Fixed Income: Fixed income markets on a solid trend despite uncertainties
  • Credit: Credit valuations prompt caution
  • Equities: Fragile recovery on the equity markets
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