Fixed income

The last significant US tax cut of my lifetime?

September 04, 2025 - 3 min

Loomis, Sayles & Company

Marketing Communication | For professional investors only

Congress may have just enacted the last significant Federal tax cut in my lifetime, maybe even in the lifetime of my younger colleagues. The main effect of the new budget is to extend current tax rates, preventing the scheduled increases in rates that were due to take effect in 2026. Minor cuts were added, including higher deductions for state and local taxes, partnership benefits, exemption for tipped wages, and benefits for older pensioners. There were also hikes for university endowment income and overseas remittances. The biggest revenue raisers are the new tariff schedules, which are still a work in progress, and outside the Congressional budget process. On net, the fiscal package is slightly stimulative, while the tariffs are slightly contractionary. The Federal deficit as a percentage of GDP may be in the approximate 7% range in 2026, up from 6.7% in the 12 months through May of this year.

Why do we believe that this might be the last tax cut?

Because the US fiscal position is in large structural deficit and the debt stock is larger. The flow deficit of about 7% of GDP combines interest expense of over 3% with a primary deficit of approximately 4% of GDP. Debt held by the public is about 100% of GDP or $30 trillion, although the public includes the Federal Reserve, which holds approximately $4.2 trillion. So marketable debt ex-Fed is “merely” 86% of GDP.

Why worry?

Worry seems reasonable, as each year with these deficits adds approximately 2% of GDP to the debt stock, and the interest bill will compound, in our view. Medicare and Social Security spending are rising due to demographics. We believe defense needs are more likely to rise than decline, given Chinese and Russian military ambitions. We believe within a couple of years, the US debt stock will reach an all-time high, exceeding the 106% level reached at the end of WWII. So what? Countries have run higher debt stocks and survived. Japan has a higher stock, and the United Kingdom ran debt up to 200% of GDP during the Napoleon Wars (Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2021). The reason for worry is that the US government is running an experiment on the willingness of investors to hold US government securities at current yields in the face of a trend erosion in US solvency, in our view.

Empirical studies of the effects of debt levels on US interest rates are extensive but unsatisfactory, in our view. A recent survey and data review (Gust, Christopher, and Arsenios Skaperdas, 2024) puts the effect at about 3 basis points on US interest rates per one percentage point of increase in Debt/GDP ratio. Other observers have seen little effect until this year. In our view, we may have moved into a new regime for which debt stocks should be considered due to rising debt levels.

We saw a sharp break in the relationship between Fed monetary policy expectations and Treasury behavior this spring, when tariff growth concerns lowered Fed policy futures yields, but ten-year Treasury yields rose rather than declined. We see a newly emerged risk premium of approximately 30-50bp in yields for long Treasuries at this time. At 3bp per point of GDP, did the market just discount the next five years of deficits, or will risk premia keep trending up? Investors will need to decide.

Governments can reduce debt burdens in several ways. The traditional way is to tighten fiscal policy and run a primary surplus. The British Empire ran a primary surplus for 80 years in the 19th century to cut its debt stock (Piketty, T., 2017). They did it on the gold standard, with zero inflation and bond yields of 3-4% while GDP growth ran at 2%. So R (the real interest rate) exceeded G (the real growth rate) and the British government still paid the debt down. Victorian Finance Ministers were hardcore.

In our view, we are now soft core. There is no plan to shrink the primary deficit directly by fiscal tightening. The plan is to have G exceed R. Perhaps deregulation and AI productivity gains will accelerate GDP growth to approximately 3%. The current US administration appears to be hoping and planning for this. The US government is also aiming for lower R. Treasury that will limit duration supply by increasing T-bill issuance while Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) bank capital relaxation is hoped to increase demand. In our view, both strategies appear to be very optimistic while inflation expectations are thought to be somewhat stable, with the five year forward expectation holding at 2.6%.

Our strategy

In such a world, Treasury pressures on the Fed to cut rates seem unlikely to dissipate, and we remain USD bears.

This material has been provided for information purposes only to investment service providers or other Professional Clients, Qualified or Institutional Investors and, when required by local regulation, only at their written request. This material must not be used with Retail Investors.

In the E.U.: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International or one of its BRANCH offices listed below. Natixis Investment Managers International is a portfolio management company authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (French Financial Markets Authority - AMF) under no. GP 90-009, and a simplified joint-stock company (société par actions simplifiée - SAS) registered in the Paris Trade and Companies Register under no. 329 450 738, Registered office: 43 avenue Pierre Mendès France, 75013 Paris. Germany: Natixis Investment Managers International, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland (Registration number: HRB 129507). Registered office: Senckenberganlage 21, 60325 Frankfurt am Main. Italy: Natixis Investment Managers International Succursale Italiana (Registration number: MI-2637562). Registered office: Via Adalberto Catena, 4, 20121 Milan, Italy. Netherlands: Natixis Investment Managers International, Dutch BRANCH (Registration number: 000050438298), Registered office: Stadsplateau 7, 3521AZ Utrecht, the Netherlands. Spain: Natixis Investment Managers International S.A., Sucursal en España (Registration number: NIF W0232616C), Registered office: Serrano n°90, 6th Floor, 28006 Madrid, Spain. Luxembourg: Natixis Investment Managers International, Luxembourg BRANCH (Registration number: B283713), Registered office: 2, rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Belgium: Natixis Investment Managers International, Belgian BRANCH (Registration number: 1006.931.462), Gare Maritime, Rue Picard 7, Bte 100, 1000 Bruxelles, Belgium.

In Switzerland: Provided for information purposes only by Natixis Investment Managers, Switzerland Sàrl (Registration number: CHE-114.271.882), Rue du Vieux Collège 10, 1204 Geneva, Switzerland or its representative office in Zurich, Schweizergasse 6, 8001 Zürich.

In the British Isles: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers UK Limited which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA firm reference no. 190258) - registered office: Natixis Investment Managers UK Limited, Level 4, Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London, EC4R 2YA. When permitted, the distribution of this material is intended to be made to persons as described as follows: in the United Kingdom: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at investment professionals and professional investors only; in Ireland: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at professional investors only; in Guernsey: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at only financial services providers which hold a license from the Guernsey Financial Services Commission; in Jersey: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at professional investors only; in the Isle of Man: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at only financial services providers which hold a license from the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority or insurers authorised under section 8 of the Insurance Act 2008.

In the DIFC: Provided in and from the DIFC financial district by Natixis Investment Managers Middle East (DIFC BRANCH) which is regulated by the DFSA. Related financial products or services are only available to persons who have sufficient financial experience and understanding to participate in financial markets within the DIFC, and qualify as Professional Clients or Market Counterparties as defined by the DFSA. No other Person should act upon this material. Registered office: Unit L10-02, Level 10 ,ICD Brookfield Place, DIFC, PO Box 506752, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

In Japan: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Japan Co., Ltd. Registration No.: Director-General of the Kanto Local Financial Bureau (kinsho) No.425. Content of Business: The Company conducts investment management business, investment advisory and agency business and Type II Financial Instruments Business as a Financial Instruments Business Operator.

In Taiwan: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Securities Investment Consulting (Taipei) Co., Ltd., a Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission of the R.O.C. Registered address: 34F., No. 68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao East Road, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 11065, Taiwan (R.O.C.), license number 2020 FSC SICE No. 025, Tel. +886 2 8789 2788.

In Singapore: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Singapore Limited (NIM Singapore) having office at 5 Shenton Way, #22-05/06, UIC Building, Singapore 068808 (Company Registration No. 199801044D) to distributors and qualified investors for information purpose only. NIM Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities and is an exempt financial adviser. Mirova Division (Business Name Registration No.: 53431077W) and Ostrum Division (Business Name Registration No.: 53463468X) are part of NIM Singapore and are not separate legal entities. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Hong Kong Limited to professional investors for information purpose only.

In Australia: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Australia Pty Limited (ABN 60 088 786 289) (AFSL No. 246830) and is intended for the general information of financial advisers and wholesale clients only.

In New Zealand: This document is intended for the general information of New Zealand wholesale investors only and does not constitute financial advice. This is not a regulated offer for the purposes of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMCA) and is only available to New Zealand investors who have certified that they meet the requirements in the FMCA for wholesale investors. Natixis Investment Managers Australia Pty Limited is not a registered financial service provider in New Zealand.

In Korea: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Korea Limited (Registered with Financial Services Commission for General Private Collective Investment Business) to distributors and qualified investors for information purpose only.

In Colombia: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International Oficina de Representación (Colombia) to professional clients for informational purposes only as permitted under Decree 2555 of 2010. Any products, services or investments referred to herein are rendered exclusively outside of Colombia. This material does not constitute a public offering in Colombia and is addressed to less than 100 specifically identified investors.

In Latin America: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International.

In Chile: Esta oferta privada se inicia el día de la fecha de la presente comunicación. La presente oferta se acoge a la Norma de Carácter General N° 336 de la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros de Chile. La presente oferta versa sobre valores no inscritos en el Registro de Valores o en el Registro de Valores Extranjeros que lleva la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, por lo que los valores sobre los cuales ésta versa, no están sujetos a su fiscalización. Que por tratarse de valores no inscritos, no existe la obligación por parte del emisor de entregar en Chile información pública respecto de estos valores. Estos valores no podrán ser objeto de oferta pública mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente.

In Mexico: Provided by Natixis IM Mexico, S. de R.L. de C.V., which is not a regulated financial entity, securities intermediary, or an investment manager in terms of the Mexican Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores) and is not registered with the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) or any other Mexican authority. Any products, services or investments referred to herein that require authorization or license are rendered exclusively outside of Mexico. While shares of certain ETFs may be listed in the Sistema Internacional de Cotizaciones (SIC), such listing does not represent a public offering of securities in Mexico, and therefore the accuracy of this information has not been confirmed by the CNBV. Natixis Investment Managers is an entity organized under the laws of France and is not authorized by or registered with the CNBV or any other Mexican authority. Any reference contained herein to “Investment Managers” is made to Natixis Investment Managers and/or any of its investment management subsidiaries, which are also not authorized by or registered with the CNBV or any other Mexican authority.

In Uruguay: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Uruguay S.A. Office: San Lucar 1491, Montevideo, Uruguay, CP 11500. The sale or offer of any units of a fund qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627.

In Brazil: Provided to a specific identified investment professional for information purposes only by Natixis Investment Managers International. This communication cannot be distributed other than to the identified addressee. Further, this communication should not be construed as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. Natixis Investment Managers International is a portfolio management company authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (French Financial Markets Authority - AMF) under no. GP 90-009, and a simplified joint-stock company (société par actions simplifiée - SAS) registered in the Paris Trade and Companies Register under no. 329 450 738. Registered office: 43 avenue Pierre Mendès France, 75013 Paris.

The above referenced entities are business development units of Natixis Investment Managers, the holding company of a diverse line-up of specialised investment management and distribution entities worldwide. The investment management subsidiaries of Natixis Investment Managers conduct any regulated activities only in and from the jurisdictions in which they are licensed or authorized. Their services and the products they manage are not available to all investors in all jurisdictions.

Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information.

The provision of this material and/or reference to specific securities, sectors, or markets within this material does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation or an offer to buy or to sell any security, or an offer of any regulated financial activity. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any investment carefully before investing. The analyses, opinions, and certain of the investment themes and processes referenced herein represent the views of the individual(s) as of the date indicated. These, as well as the portfolio holdings and characteristics shown, are subject to change and cannot be construed as having any contractual value. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as may be forecasted in this material. The analyses and opinions expressed by external third parties are independent and does not necessarily reflect those of Natixis Investment Managers. Any past performance information presented is not indicative of future performance.

This material may not be distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part.

All amounts shown are expressed in USD unless otherwise indicated.

DR-73211