Chris Wallis, CEO, CIO and Senior Portfolio Manager at Vaughan Nelson Investment Management and Dan Hughes, Client Portfolio Manager, delve into what economic indicators may be telling us about the COVID-19 recovery, along with stock market implications.
- We’re still in a growth cycle upturn on the industrial side, and that recovery should continue. On the services side, it’s going to be a difficult slow recovery.
- The full impact of government stimulus has not yet been realized. We sent the stimulus out before the damage occurred. We actually saw a very material increase in real disposable income in the first and second quarter. This is set to reverse. So I think there’s going to be some real headwinds.
- Temporary layoffs that we’ve seen are going to become permanent in large parts of the economy. This will be reflected in small businesses that will not be able to survive.
- The silver lining in all of this is that the US gets a chance to reshape its economy. If we can do it in a productive fashion it could provide job opportunities and positive real growth for the economy going forward.
- Companies whose management have been able to give guidance for 2020 and even into 2021 have been able to restore investor confidence.
For more insight, watch this video with Chris Wallis: