• Concerns about the Delta variant are growing, but vaccine penetration rates are picking up in the US, with 27 states reporting a jump of 30% or more in the two weeks ending August 2.
  • If the US timeline for case surges follows the timeline we’ve seen in the UK and India, the Delta variant may run its course more quickly than markets expect.
  • While sentiment has certainly reset and we may get a bit more consolidation and chop before the end of the summer, we still expect to see higher prices by year-end.
  • We see eight specific tailwinds that may act as catalysts, starting with the child tax credit checks, indications of wage gains and stronger household balance sheets.
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