- We’re still in a growth cycle upturn on the industrial side, and that recovery should continue. On the services side, it’s going to be a difficult slow recovery.
- The full impact of government stimulus has not yet been realized. We sent the stimulus out before the damage occurred. We actually saw a very material increase in real disposable income in the first and second quarter. This is set to reverse. So I think there’s going to be some real headwinds.
- Temporary layoffs that we’ve seen are going to become permanent in large parts of the economy. This will be reflected in small businesses that will not be able to survive.
- The silver lining in all of this is that the US gets a chance to reshape its economy. If we can do it in a productive fashion it could provide job opportunities and positive real growth for the economy going forward.
- Companies whose management have been able to give guidance for 2020 and even into 2021 have been able to restore investor confidence.